On 10th March, Election of the 5 state assembly was announced. It followed the blitz of the analysis in Newspapers and TV channels about the reason behind the grand success of the BJP. But I think the results are more about the grand debacle of the congress than the victory of the BJP. Look at the Congress performance in Uttrakhand. Unlike Punjab, there is no anti-incumbency against congress. Furthermore the history of the changing party in each term in uttarakhand also favors the congress. Even after such favorable conditions, Congress got only 19 seats out of 70.

Political pundits give credit of the Social welfare scheme particularly the Free food scheme in UP for the succeed of the BJP in UP. Anther common factor that can be found in all analysis in BJP victory is the social engineering. But I think differently. All these factors play the supporting role, lead role is the incentive structure in the party that decide the outcome of the results.

Let me make simple. A party need the support of the 50% MLA to form the goverment. Party manifesto, past performance of the party, Party funding etc helps the candidate to improve performance in her/his constituency. But after all it is the candidate who has to put in the effort to win the seat. Here the incentive structure plays an important role. When a candidate has the optimism of getting political promotion after victory motivates her/him to put more efforts to win the seat. Here there is no match for the BJP.

A party needs workers of the four types - (1) Expert/Experience of the governance (2) Worker who can mobilize votes (3) Worker who can mobilize money and (4) Worker who can expand ideology. A party need to establish balance between all four types of the workers. But when you see the list of the top party echelons of the Congress, all are of the type 1 workers. Type 2,3 and 4 are the totally absent from the party high command posts.

Party worker of the either of four type have the aspiration to reach to highest position in party. This stand true for the party worker of all parties. There is no political worker who like to remain as Sarpanch of the village for the lifetime. A successful sarppach aspire to become MLA and then MP and then Minister.

Let me first explained incentive structure withing BJP that have the incentive based promotion for the party work.

Expert/Experience of governance - Late Arun Jaitley lost the Lok Sbha election of 2014. He had never won any assembly election also. But his expertise of the governance and experience of the Rajya Sabha helped him to become Union Finance minister.

Worker who Mobilizes vote - Before 2013, Amit shah was just an MLA of the Gujarat assembly. He was not a national level leader in 2013. But he engineered the miracle in UP in the 2014 General election when BJP won 73 seats out of 80. Party incentivized him and Made in National president.

Worker who can mobilize money - This is the hidden secrete of the Indian politics. Our electoral fund process is very opaque. Citizen don't have information about the fund raiser withing party so can not write about the incentive structure within BJP for this.Nevertheless , it has been said ans written that Nitin Gadkari and Piyush Goyal have the good relations with the corporate and look their position in party.

Worker who can expand ideology - Tejasvi surya at the age of the 29 got the ticket for the Loksbha election from high profile Bangalore constituency. Likewise 36 old Harsh shangvi became Gujarat home minister recently. Look at the twitter timeline of these people and only then you can realized about their strong commitment towards the party ideology. Furthermore, PM Narendra modi also incentivized the ground worker committed to party ideology by following him/her on twitter.

Now let look the incentive structure in the Congress.

Congress working committee is the highest party platform in the congress. There are total 20 members in this body. Let have gimps of their profile.

Worker who Mobilizes vote - There is not a single person who have ability to mobilize the votes. Harish rawat who have lost 4 assembly election is members of the CWC. Rahul gandhi who lost traditonal stronghold of the congress seat Amethi is also a member. Ajay makan as leader of the Delhi congress brought the congress to zero seat in Delhi assembly is also a member.

Workers who can expand ideology - Birender Singh and Jyoti Scindia were the members of the CWC. Both have left congress and joined the BJP. This shows how congress provides top position to the party worker with weaker committeemen towards the party's ideology. Priyanka Gandhi who was not even a congress worker before 2 year is also a member of the CWC.

Expert/Experience of governance- The Whole CWC is of the experts. AK Antony, Manmohan singh , P.Chidambaram are the members of the CWC from this quota. This makes sense.

Worker who can mobilize money - As I write above, citizens do not have the information about the party fundraisers. But the Media report names DK Shivkumar as the major fund mobilizer for the congress. But he is not in CWC.

CWC is like the IBSA. IBSA is the diplomatic group of India, Brazil, South Africa. IBSA called the Leaders in search of the followers. IBSA claimed to be a voice of the global south but countries of the global south do not consider the IBSA as their leader. Likewise CWC members are the leaders without the followers. There are 21 members in CWC and I do not think that any leader can

In CWC, out of 21 members, Only 3 members are the sitting MLA or the MP Lok sabha. All others are the Former MLA or the Rajya Sabha MP.

In CWC, out of 21 members, Only 2 are the Lok Sabha MP - Son and Mother, Rahul and Sonia Gandhi. And there are 7 Raja Sabha MP in CWC.

BJP is not just good at incentivizing the members but also good at the demotion of the member for the failure. Recently in Gujarat, BJP has not just removed CM Rupani and Dy CM Patel but also replaced all the council of the minister with the fresh face for the mishandling of the 2nd Covid wave. There is no place in the BJP for passivity.
On the other hand, the Inertia force is very strong in the Congress. Even after the successive loss in Delhi and Uttarakhand, both Ajay makan and Harish rawat are still members of the congress CWC. Why can not congress replace Harish Rawat with Pritam singh who is LOP in Uttarakhand and also secure his seat for successive 4th/5th term ? Likewise Ajay Kumar Lallu who is fighing on streets of the UP since many years have no place in the CWC but Priyanka Gandhi who joined congress just few months ago is CWC member. Congress have to break inertia force to revive itself.

At this stage, Congress need the proper incentive structure based on sole criteria of the vote mobilizer at each stage of the party ( CWC, AICC, PCC etc) . For example, a party worker who take guarantee of 5 Lok sabha seat in state and fulfill the promise should have secure place in the CWC. Likewise congress should send the members to the Rajysabha only those who can provide 20 assembly seat to the congress in state.

I also believe that congress should provide the space to the elected Sarpanchs, Mayors, MLA etc in the CWC. Yes they may not know the lyutens but at this stage congress have nothing to loose and congress have no option rather than experimenting new formulas.